Hopes for Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal take severe blow as Netanyahu vows to invade Rafah

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A potential deal to halt almost seven months of war in Gaza hung in the balance Tuesday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shuttled around the Middle East trying to push home a ceasefire pact between Israel and Hamas.

Ceasefire hopes, which had risen in recent days as Mr. Blinken visited Saudi Arabia and Jordan to build support in the Arab world, took a severe blow just before he landed in Israel on Tuesday when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that his country’s military would invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah regardless of how the negotiations went.

“The idea that we will halt the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question,” Mr. Netanyahu said while meeting the families of some of the victims of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. “We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there, with or without a deal, in order to achieve the total victory.”

Trying to prevent an assault on Rafah – and the humanitarian crisis that would create – has been one of the main motivators behind the frantic U.S.-led diplomacy. U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly warned Mr. Netanyahu against ordering an invasion of Rafah, calling it a red line and saying in March that “you cannot have another 30,000 more Palestinians dead.”

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said on Tuesday that the United States had not yet seen a credible Israeli plan to protect civilians during a military operation in Rafah. More than a million people are crowded into the city, which was previously seen as the safest place in Gaza. Many have been living in tents for months after being displaced from their homes in the north and centre of the strip earlier in the war.

Speaking in Jordan on Tuesday, Mr. Blinken said the U.S. position on a Rafah operation was well known, adding that “our focus right now is on getting a ceasefire and hostages home.” He said the onus was on Hamas to accept the deal on the table.

The framework of a ceasefire deal that would at least temporarily pause the fighting appeared to be in sight before Mr. Netanyahu’s comments. Israel was reported to have demanded the release of 33 of the hostages Hamas has been holding since Oct. 7. Subsequent steps would see Israel reduce its military presence in Gaza and allow hundreds of thousands of displaced residents to return to their homes. Israel would later withdraw from more of the narrow coastal territory in exchange for future hostage releases.

Hamas is believed to still be holding 133 Israelis and foreigners hostage, though the Israeli government believes that at least some of them have died in captivity. Hamas, an Islamist extremist group that governed Gaza before the war, sent a delegation to Cairo on Monday to review the proposed terms of the ceasefire deal.

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Before Mr. Netanyahu’s remarks about Rafah, Mr. Blinken said convincing Hamas to release hostages was the “only obstacle” to an agreement. Mr. Blinken called the Israeli offer “extraordinarily generous.”

Palestinian officials say more than 34,000 people have been killed during the military assault Israel launched after Oct. 7, a campaign that has left much of the strip in ruins and driven some 80 per cent of its 2.3 million prewar residents from their homes. The Palestinian Ministry of Health estimates that another 10,000 people are missing under the rubble of destroyed buildings.

More than 1,100 Israelis and foreigners were killed in the initial Hamas attack, and 240 others were taken to Gaza as hostages.

Even more complicated than stopping the current fighting is the question of what might come afterward in Gaza. Mr. Blinken arrived in Israel having secured conditional agreement from Egypt, Jordan and perhaps Saudi Arabia to join an Arab peacekeeping force that would take interim security responsibility for Gaza and help prevent a Hamas return to power.

But the Arab governments have made it clear that they would only take on a role in Gaza if it was part of a clear process that would lead to an independent Palestinian state based in Gaza and the West Bank, which has been under Israeli military occupation since 1967.

Mr. Netanyahu, however, has long stood opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state. His government, which is supported by far-right religious parties, could collapse if he reversed that position now.

But both Mr. Blinken and Mr. Netanyahu are under rising pressure. The Biden administration – which has backed Israel militarily and diplomatically throughout the conflict – has been caught off guard by spreading student protests in the U.S. calling for not just a ceasefire but an end to Washington’s long-standing support for Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces divisions inside his government as well as regular protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem calling for his resignation. There have also been reports suggesting The Hague-based International Criminal Court may be preparing arrest warrants against him and other senior Israeli officials over the conduct of the war in Gaza.

“I want to make one thing clear: No decision, neither in The Hague nor anywhere else, will harm our determination to achieve all the goals of the war – the release of all our hostages, a complete victory over Hamas and a promise that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel,” Mr. Netanyahu said on Monday.

Israel is not a member of the ICC, but the Palestinian Authority asked the ICC to investigate possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Gaza, giving the World Court jurisdiction.

Tamar Hermann, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute in Tel Aviv, said the possibility of ICC indictments might have “unintended consequences” on the ceasefire negotiations. She said Mr. Netanyahu’s comments about a Rafah operation reflected the pressure he was under from far-right-wing members of his government, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Mr. Smotrich has said Mr. Netanyahu’s government would “have no right to exist” if it made a deal with Hamas.

Pushing Mr. Netanyahu from the other side are the White House and Benny Gantz, a former general and a key member of the war cabinet Mr. Netanyahu formed after Oct. 7. Mr. Gantz has said that bringing hostages home “is of much greater importance” than entering Rafah.

Despite Mr. Netanyahu’s statement on Tuesday, Prof. Hermann said the decision about whether or not a ceasefire deal happens remained with Hamas. “As for Rafah – if Hamas declines again the American-Israeli deal, and refuses to release a significant number of hostages, then support for this operation will most probably increase dramatically.”

Radi Jarai, a retired professor of political science at al-Quds University in the West Bank city of Ramallah, said only Israel and the U.S. had the power to bring an end to the war. Mr. Jarai said he believed that Mr. Netanyahu saw extending the conflict as the only way to justify remaining in office with so many Israelis now opposed to him.

“Netanyahu is facing many challenges inside and outside. He feels that if this ceasefire is achieved, he will be forced to go home. He and the Chief of Staff and the Defence Minister. So it’s in his own interest … to extend the war as long as he can.”

As the ceasefire talks moved from Saudi Arabia to Jordan to Israel, Palestinian officials said another 40 people were killed by Israeli air strikes on Gaza on Monday alone. Violence also flared in Jerusalem on Tuesday when an Israeli police officer was stabbed near the historic Old City by a 34-year-old Turkish man who reportedly entered Israel on Monday on a tourist visa.