In 2024, more than half of the world’s population, an estimated four billion people in more than 50 countries, are expected to head to the polls, according to an estimate by The Economist. It is the first time in history that so many people will have the opportunity to put a mark on a ballot in a single year. Those elections include some of the world’s biggest and most populated countries: India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, the United States, as well as the European Union.
Many of the elections will be crucial tests of democracy in their countries and regions. This has led some observers to describe 2024 as a global make-or-break year for democracy, columnist Doug Saunders wrote in a Globe and Mail column published late last year.
Every year, U.S.-based non-profit organization Freedom House assigns a Global Freedom Score to every country and a select group of territories in its annual Freedom in the World report. The scores measure the degree of civil liberties and political rights in every nation, categorizing them as Free, Partly Free, or Not Free. Here are some major elections to watch in 2024, which also outline this year’s Freedom House rankings. This piece will be updated as elections occur.
Table of contents • Map • Elections so far • Still to come • Other dates
Overview: Which countries are voting, and how free are they?
Key elections happening in 2024
The countries holding elections this year range from “free”
to “not free” in global rankings of civil liberties by the
group Freedom House
Britain:
By Jan. 2025
Russia: March 15-17
U.S.:
Nov. 5
EU: June 6-9
Bangladesh: Jan. 7
Pakistan: Feb. 8
Taiwan:
Jan. 13
India: April
Mexico:
June 2
South Sudan:
December
Indonesia: Feb. 14
South Africa:
May 29
Global freedom scores
71-100 Free
34-70 Partly free
0-33 Not free
Taiwan
94
Britain
91
U.S.
83
S. Africa
79
India
66
Mexico
60
Indonesia
57
Bangladesh
40
Pakistan
35
Russia
13
S. Sudan
1
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: openstreetmap;
freedomhouse.org
Key elections happening in 2024
The countries holding elections this year range from “free”
to “not free” in global rankings of civil liberties by the
group Freedom House
Britain:
By Jan. 2025
Russia: March 15-17
U.S.:
Nov. 5
EU: June 6-9
Bangladesh: Jan. 7
Pakistan: Feb. 8
Taiwan:
Jan. 13
India: April
Mexico:
June 2
South Sudan:
December
Indonesia: Feb. 14
South Africa:
May 29
Global freedom scores
71-100 Free
34-70 Partly free
0-33 Not free
Taiwan
94
Britain
91
U.S.
83
S. Africa
79
India
66
Mexico
60
Indonesia
57
Bangladesh
40
Pakistan
35
Russia
13
S. Sudan
1
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: openstreetmap;
freedomhouse.org
Key elections happening in 2024
Global freedom scores
The countries holding elections this year range from “free” to “not free”
in global rankings of civil liberties by the group Freedom House
71-100 Free
34-70 Partly free
0-33 Not free
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: openstreetmap; freedomhouse.org
Bangladesh
Election date: Jan. 7
Freedom World status: Partly Free
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth straight term on Jan. 7 in a controversial election fraught with low voter turnout, violence and a boycott from the main opposition party. Ms. Hasina, 76, is the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history.
In her most recent 15 years in power, Ms. Hasina has been credited with turning around Bangladesh’s economy and the key garment industry. But critics accuse her of authoritarianism, human-rights violations, crackdowns on free speech and suppression of dissent.
The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party refused to accept the election outcome, saying Bangladeshi voters have rejected the government’s one-sided election. The party boycotted the vote after Ms. Hasina refused to cede power to a caretaker government to run the poll.
On the eve of the election, polling booths were set ablaze and four people were killed in a train fire that the government described as an arson attack. At least 18 arson attacks had preceded the Jan. 7 vote.
Supporters of the governing Awami League celebrate in Dhaka on Jan. 10 after their party secured victory in an election with low turnout and no participation from the main opposition party.Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP
Taiwan
Election date: Jan. 13
Freedom World status: Free
Taiwan elected Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to be the island’s next president on Jan. 13, giving the DPP a historic third consecutive victory. Mr. Lai faced a fierce challenge from both the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and the upstart Taiwan People’s Party, outperforming polls to secure around 40 per cent of the vote despite warnings from China not to vote for him.
During his victory speech, Mr. Lai said Taiwan “stands on the side of democracy.” He also promised to safeguard Taiwan “from continuing threats and intimidation” while pursuing exchanges and co-operation with China.
Beijing has regarded Taiwan as its sovereign territory and has threatened military action in order to achieve “reunification.” China has ramped up diplomatic, trade and military pressure against Taiwan, including firing missiles into its waters and staging large-scale war games around the island at periods of high tension.
On election night in Taipei, supporters of Lai Ching-te and his Democratic Progressive Party cheer after learning he would be Taiwan’s next president.Chiang Ying-ying/AP
Pakistan
Election date: Feb. 8
Freedom World status: Partly Free
Pakistan’s general elections were held on Feb. 8 against a backdrop of intense military presence, pre-poll rigging and the continuing influence of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which is backed by the country’s powerful military establishment, was expected to win the vote and reinstate former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Instead, independent candidates affiliated with Mr. Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party secured the most seats in parliament.
Mr. Khan came into office in 2018 as the military’s preferred candidate and an anti-corruption reformer. During his four-year term, he became increasingly critical of the military and of Pakistan’s ties to the United States, favouring much closer relations with Russia and China. In 2022, his party was ousted from office in a parliamentary non-confidence vote.
He then faced a series of charges that saw him banned from politics for five years. In May, 2023, after he was arrested on additional charges, his supporters rioted, attacking military bases across the country. This led to further charges. When parliament dissolved that August, the military decided to delay national elections and install a caretaker government.
The 2024 election has been so directly controlled that some informed observers are describing this as a new, more overtly military-led era in Pakistani politics. For example, the military shut down the country’s entire cellphone and mobile-data network on election day.
The vote took place at a moment of crisis in Pakistan, as stubborn 30-per-cent inflation and steep currency devaluation have coincided with violent conflicts on its borders with Afghanistan, Iran and India, as well as terrorist upsurges in the country’s west and north – meaning that both the economy and large swaths of national policy are dominated by the military.
Pakistani women cast ballots in Peshawar on Feb. 8, the long-awaited contest between a caretaker prime minister backed by the military and supporters of a former prime minister banned from politics.ABDUL MAJEED/AFP via Getty Images
Indonesia
Election date: Feb. 14
Freedom World status: Partly Free
Tens of millions of Indonesians voted on Feb. 14 in the world’s third-largest democracy, spanning thousands of islands and three time zones, to choose a successor to President Joko Widodo and some 20,000 other office holders.
Final results will be released in March, but early counts suggest a first-round victory for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, running on a ticket with Mr. Joko’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
To avoid a runoff, which would be held in June, Mr. Prabowo needs to win more than 50 per cent of the national vote in a three-way race against former governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.
Mr. Prabowo, a disgraced special forces commander once banned from entering the United States because of alleged human-rights violations during the Suharto dictatorship, has pursued the presidency for decades, through means both fair and foul.
In a rousing victory speech to supporters, Mr. Prabowo promised to create a government consisting of “the best Indonesians.”
Rival campaigns have warned of widespread fraud, without providing evidence, and vowed to contest the result.
Using motorbikes and ox carts, the logistics unit of Indonesia’s General Elections Commission carry polling materials to a remote part of Lampung province on Feb. 11. Voting is a complex undertaking in Indonesia, an archipelago more than 5,000 kilometres long, home to more than 273 million people.PERDIANSYAH/AFP via Getty Images
Russia
Election date: March 15 to March 17
Freedom World status: Not Free
Vladimir Putin secured an unprecedented fifth term as president of Russia on March 17 in what many are calling a “sham” and “stage-managed” presidential election. The Central Election Commission announced that Mr. Putin, who has been in power as president or prime minister since 1999, had won another six-year term with almost 88 per cent of the vote – a sharp rise from the 77.5-per-cent support he claimed in 2018.
The Kremlin also claimed a record voter turnout at 74 per cent for an election that generated almost no public debate or excitement. There were widespread reports of ballot-stuffing, as well as of people being forced to vote in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
If he serves the entire six-year term, Mr. Putin will surpass Joseph Stalin’s 29-year reign and become Russia’s longest-serving leader since Catherine the Great.
More remarkable than the official figures were the crowds of Russians who turned out at polling stations across the country – and Russian embassies around the world – to show their opposition to Mr. Putin and their respect for Alexey Navalny, who died on Feb. 16 in an Arctic prison camp. Russia’s beleaguered democrats and world leaders have accused the Kremlin of murdering the country’s most popular opposition figure.
Participants in the action were responding to a call from Ms. Navalnaya, who asked that Russians carry through with the Noon Against Putin protest – arriving en masse and voting for anyone but the incumbent or spoiling ballots – an action that her husband designed from behind bars shortly before his death. In the eyes of many, Ms. Navalnaya is now the leader of those who want to see a different Russia than the authoritarian, militaristic version that Mr. Putin has built over his quarter-century in power.
President Vladimir Putin speaks at his victory concert in Moscow's Red Square on March 18, which was also the anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea.Alexander Zemlianichenko/The Associated Press
India
Election date: April 19 to June 4
Freedom World status: Partly Free
India, the world’s biggest democracy, will hold a seven-phase general election, starting on April 19 with results to be declared on June 4.
The elections for 543 seats in India’s Lok Sabha, or lower house of parliament, will be a mammoth exercise spanning the country’s varied terrain. More than 2,400 political parties are expected to put up candidates.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are campaigning to be re-elected for a third straight term. The results from the December state elections gave a big boost to the BJP as it swept up the regions of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition party.
A victory would make Mr. Modi only the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s independence hero and its first prime minister, to win a third straight term.
The elections come at a time when India is facing multiple challenges, including rising unemployment, attacks by Hindu nationalists against the country’s minorities, particularly Muslims, and a shrinking space for dissent and free media.
College students in Chennai take part in a pre-election awareness campaign. Different regions of India will vote between late April and early June.R. SATISH BABU/AFP via Getty Images
Mexico
Election date: June 2
Freedom World status: Partly Free
Mexico is poised to elect its first female president on June 2 – either Claudia Sheinbaum, a protégé of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or a former opposition senator, Xóchitl Gálvez.
Morena candidate Ms. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, leads all polls and would become the first Jewish president in what remains a heavily Catholic country. Meanwhile, Broad Front for Mexico candidate Ms. Gálvez, a senator and businesswoman, rose from an impoverished Indigenous village to study computer engineering and become a successful tech entrepreneur. She voiced progressive views upon winning the nomination but turned more to the centre after getting scorn from parts of her coalition – which spans the political spectrum.
The country is facing deep political divisions and security struggles as drug cartels meddle in regional races and kill candidates with impunity.
There are also fears from civil-society organizations of democratic backsliding under populist President Obrador. And his ruling Morena party risks turning into a revamped version of the old Institutional Revolutionary Party, which governed Mexico for 71 years under an authoritarian system of top-down presidential leadership.
Under the Mexican constitution, the president is limited to a single six-year term. No one who holds the office is permitted to run for or hold the office again.
Demonstrators in Mexico City demand respect for electoral autonomy in this year's race to choose a new Mexican president. Critics of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, accuse him of biasing the process toward his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum.Marco Ugarte/AP
South Africa
Election date: May 29
Freedom World status: Free
South Africa will hold pivotal national elections on May 29 as polls show the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could lose its majority for the first time since it came to power with the fall of apartheid 30 years ago.
Several polls predict that the party once widely admired around the world and led by Nelson Mandela will slip below 50 per cent of the vote for the first time since it won South Africa’s first all-race election in 1994.
If it loses its majority, the ANC would need to enter into a coalition to remain in government and keep President Cyril Ramaphosa – a political protege of Mr. Mandela’s – as president for a second and final five-year term. South Africa has never had a coalition at the national level because of the ANC’s dominance. If the ANC falls below the 50-per-cent mark, for the first time in three decades, President Ramaphosa will probably be obliged to resign, analysts say.
But a new political party led by former president Jacob Zuma has grabbed the spotlight with radical promises of land redistribution, mandatory military service, legalization of corporal punishment and the exile of pregnant teenagers to compulsory schooling at the former apartheid prison of Robben Island.
Africa’s most developed economy faces an array of problems, including a struggling economy, crippling power blackouts, an unemployment rate of nearly 32 per cent and widespread voter mistrust following a stream of corruption allegations over the years.
Supporters of the African National Congress celebrate its 112th anniversary in Mbombela on Jan. 13, waving a tribute to current President Cyril Ramaphosa. When South Africans vote on May 29, polls suggest the ANC could lose its majority for the first time in 30 years.PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP via Getty Images
European Union
Election date: June 6 to June 9
Freedom World status: Free (with the exception of Hungary, Partly Free)
Every five years, citizens of European Union countries elect their representatives in parliament – known as members of the European Parliament (MEPs). This year’s elections, held between June 6 and June 9, will take place across all 27 EU member countries.
MEPs shape and decide on new laws that influence all aspects of life across the EU, including the economy, climate change and security. MEPs also elect the President of the European Commission, a position held by Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen.
Election days are divided across the EU countries over the four-day period. For example, the Netherlands will hold elections on June 6 while France will hold elections on June 9.
Banners at the European parliament in Brussels promote the upcoming elections for new representatives from the 27 member states. Voting is from June 6 to June 9.Yves Herman/Reuters
United States
Election date: Nov. 5
Freedom World status: Free
One of the most crucial elections happening this year is the United States’ presidential race. In a likely repeat of 2020, a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump looms large.
Mr. Trump has already secured major wins in the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary despite his indictments in four separate criminal cases. He strengthened his domination with a near sweep of the states on Super Tuesday, causing rival candidate Nikki Haley to announce the end of her presidential bid the following day. Ms. Haley’s exit clears the way for Mr. Trump to win the Republican nomination.
The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Mr. Trump can remain on the Colorado ballot despite his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, when rioters entered the U.S. Capitol building following a speech by the outgoing president.
Mr. Trump is promising an unprecedented transformation of the country. If he wins in November, Americans can expect sweeping purges of public institutions to keep MAGA loyalists in power – and begin a radical right-wing makeover, Adrian Morrow reports.
Through 2024, the United States has a busy calendar of party primaries – such as this one in Michigan on Feb. 27 – before a general election on Nov. 5.Paul Sancya/AP
Britain
Election date: Due by January, 2025 but expected by the end of 2024
Freedom World status: Free
The timing of Britain’s next national election is uncertain, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he expects to call it “in the second half” of 2024.
Under current laws – the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 – Mr. Sunak has to call an election by January, 2025, and can choose any date before that deadline. Many speculate on a vote in October, seeing as November would clash with the U.S. elections.
Currently, the governing Conservatives have a majority, but polls show the Labour Party has around a 20-percentage point lead over the Conservatives, with some projections saying that it would likely have a substantial majority if that level of support was replicated during an election.
The Parliament buildings in London could see some new occupants within a few months, but the exact date of an election has not yet been decided. Legally, it can be no later than January of 2025.DANIEL LEAL/AFP via Getty Images
South Sudan
Election date: December, 2024
Freedom World status: Not Free
South Sudan – the world’s youngest country, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after years of civil war – plans to hold its long-delayed first elections in December. The balloting would represent a key milestone but could be rife with danger and vulnerable to failure under current conditions.
Nicholas Haysom, who heads the UN mission in the country, told the Security Council in December, 2023 that voter registration details, a security plan and a way to resolve disputes are among the missing elements needed to ensure free elections that are “deemed credible and acceptable to South Sudanese citizens.”
An Iranian voter leaves a polling station in Tehran on March 1 during parliamentary elections.Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
Other key election dates to note
- El Salvador: Feb. 4
- Senegal: Feb. 25
- Iran: March 1
- Ukraine: March 31
- Panama: May 5
- Dominican Republic: May 19
- Rwanda: July 15
- Mozambique: Oct. 9
- Mauritius: Nov. 30
- Ghana: Dec. 7
- Venezuela: December
With reports from Doug Saunders, Adrian Morrow, James Griffiths, Mark MacKinnon, Geoffrey York, David Agren, Associated Press and Reuters