The idea that the Raptors might one day overtake the Maple Leafs as Toronto's team is an appealing canard.
It spins together two basic Canadian character traits: outsiderism and a profound suspicion of anything that's a big deal in Toronto.
Outgoing Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment chief executive officer Tim Leiweke has been peddling the idea in the last little while, more in hope than expectation.
"There's going to be a day and age when the Raptors are going to be as big as the Leafs," Leiweke said. "I've made a few stupid comments. That's not one of them."
You understand his spin on this: Leiweke will leave town having made no substantive impact on the hockey team. They looked better when he arrived.
His legacy rests largely on the basketball club's turnaround. He went and got general manager Masai Ujiri – probably the signal achievement of his tenure. No Leiweke, no Ujiri. No Ujiri and the Raptors are still a hot mess in short pants. Q.E.D.
Right now, the Raptors are the sexier of the pair. You'd find more charisma eavesdropping on one-half of an Amir Johnson phone call than in dozens of hours of conversation with all the Leafs combined. Well, maybe not Leo Komarov. If only we all spoke a little more Finnish.
The Raptors are the better team. They catch more buzz on social media, thanks to the perfectly on-point "We The North" ad campaign (which might be Leiweke's No. 2 accomplishment).
The crowds? You can't even begin to compare the crowds. Clearly, they drug the fountain drinks at the ACC. For the Raptors, amphetamines. For the Leafs, Quaaludes.
Most importantly, the Raptors are sticking it to the United States on our behalf. There is nothing so sweet for a Toronto audience as indulging our collective short-man syndrome vis-à-vis our southern neighbours. That we're doing it with a team that's 75-per-cent U.S.-born is – well, let's just ignore that part.
In the past year or so, the Raptors have done every single thing right. That's up to and including losing Game 7 to the Brooklyn Nets. Imagine they'd won, then staggered off to Miami to get annihilated by the Heat? That would have been amazing – for me. I had the South Beach hotel booked and everything. Several people were near tears in that postgame presser. All of them were local reporters.
However, it would've created an unreasonable expectation – and a downer on the way out. If you want to bring your fan base to a boil, it's best done in increments. That's how you maximize interest. The Jays' slow, winning burn beginning in the mid-eighties is the instructive lesson.
The Raptors put the whole package together. Almost by accident, they are a marketing case study. And there's good reason to believe that they may – may – be building a title contender.
The Leafs just kind of shuffle out onto the ice, cloaked in mediocrity. Some nights it's like watching the shift change at the mill. They charge usurious rates for tickets. They have as much personality as a box of turnips. They do nothing for their fans – except torment them.
And yet they will never be overtaken in this town. Never. Never ever. Jesus could choose Dundas Square as his earthly re-entry point, and it would be a pretty big deal – unless he did it on a Saturday night around 7.
In terms of TV numbers, the Leafs continue to outdraw the Raptors nationally at the rate of 10 to 1. That lead does not get overturned in a decade or a lifetime. That's hegemonic control of the marketplace.
The Raptors may vastly increase their share with a long run of competence, but only because Toronto is a city of front-runners. We love winners. We'll love them as long as they win. Once they don't, we go back to hockey – where losing is fine.
Believing the Raptors will eventually rule this Toronto's imagination has a (salutary) moralizing aspect. This isn't about sport. It's about the city's better angels.
Toronto's demographics are changing, and we expect that tastes will change along with them. Basketball is easy entry in terms of cost – both to play and watch.
The NBA is the most friendly of the big four sports to immigrants. Aside from soccer, it's the world's most cosmopolitan sport. It's simpler to follow, expects less cultish adherence from its followers.
Basketball is the sport of the Toronto we imagine we live in now, or certainly will in 10 years. We want to believe in that city.
But a city does not adapt to its citizens; citizens adapt to their city. In our imaginative public spaces, we need to agree on a common rallying point. The Leafs have been providing that for nearly a century. That's too much history to overcome.
It's got nothing to do with results. When Leiweke talks about the Raptors, that's what he means – that winning a title in the bigger sport by revenue will cause Toronto to fall out of love. It's a very American perspective.
It doesn't matter if the Leafs ever win anything. I wonder if they ever will – or can – in a market this overheated.
Regardless, they will continue to rule Toronto because, on some fundamental level, they are the glue that holds the place together.
Cathal Kelly