"The King is dead – long live the King!" The transition from King Abdullah to King Salman in Saudi Arabia nicely fits that phrase. One of the new king's first actions was to immediately promote Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, who had been appointed deputy crown prince by the late king, as the new crown prince.
The succession is now assured and jittery markets can calm.
Or can they? Does the smooth transition promise continuity of Saudi strategy in global markets and in the Middle East?
Saudi Arabia is today the key player in global oil markets. In November at an OPEC meeting, King Abdullah's ministers made it clear that that they were playing a long game. To preserve its market share in the face of new energy sources coming on-stream from the United States, Saudi Arabia refused to cut production of oil, even though the price was falling. Riyadh is trying to force higher-cost producers out of the market and preserve its pre-eminence.
Saudi strategy is punishing Iran, its sworn enemy, but it is also punishing the new government in Iraq, its vulnerable neighbour and protégé, as well as many of the oil-producing states in the Gulf. Will King Salman continue this strategy?
Almost certainly. The strategy is the result of widespread discussion and consensus among Saudi leaders and experts and is likely to endure, at least until the market stabilizes. In his first official statement as king, King Salman pledged to continue Saudi policies. Iranian and Russian producers hoping for a quick change are likely to be disappointed.
More uncertain is whether the new king will continue the aggressive support of Sunnis in their conflict with Shia Islam that is ripping through the Middle East, leaving a trail of blood and violence in its wake. King Abdullah was vituperative in his opposition to Iran and its allies in the region, privately urging U.S. President Barack Obama to "cut off the head of the snake." His determination to remove Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, his support of militants in Syria committed to Mr. al-Assad's ouster, and the strong support of military dictator Abdul Fatah el-Sisi in Egypt were all signature elements of Saudi foreign policy.
As the guardian of the holy places, King Salman will play a leading role in shaping strategy for Sunni Muslims. He, more than other recent Saudi monarchs, brings with him deep experience as a conciliator. King Salman served for many years as governor of Riyadh province, where he brokered agreement among rivals in a royal family of about 7,000 princes and princesses. His temperament may be less assertive than that of the late king.
We will soon know. The new king will be sorely tested by the emergence of Iranian-supported Houthis as an important political force in Yemen and the chaos that is enveloping its southern neighbour. King Salman will not be able to remain passive for long in the face of this challenge. Whether he responds with force or builds alliances within Yemen will tell us a great deal about the predispositions of the new king.
As always, the world will be watching. If the new king mismanages these strategic challenges, Saudi Arabia can destabilize the region and global energy markets.