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People wait for the bus on Finch Avenue, alongside construction for the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension Project.Michelle Siu/The Globe and Mail

Light ridership and limited spinoff development have made the Sheppard subway a poster-child for how not to build transit in Toronto. But that doesn't stop advocates for a subway under Finch, a line that promises to make Sheppard look positively busy.

The province has promised to build and pay for a light-rail line on Finch Avenue West, a project that should be complete around 2020. Mayoral candidates Olivia Chow and John Tory say they support that plan, but Doug Ford is keeping alive the dream of a subway in the area.

"I think what you have to do to get people off the road, you have to give them proper underground rapid transit," said Mr. Ford, who is running second in recent polls.

"There's two ways I look at it. Either go the cheap route, and we're tearing it down like the Scarborough RT in 30 years, or you're spending a little more and building underground."

This subway line doesn't seem logical using normal yardsticks of density, ridership projections or cost-benefit analysis. In Toronto, though, where political interference has trumped planning on transit for decades, anything is possible.

Mr. Ford's plan calls for the new subway line to begin at Keele and Finch, the site of a future station on the TTC's Spadina subway extension. It would run almost as far as Mississauga, finishing around Humber College.

This would prompt a huge increase in the bill, with the subway projected to cost $1.6-billion more than the $1-billion LRT it would replace. It would require the province to agree to change its plan and allocate money to Mr. Ford's proposal instead. The additional money would have to be found by the city.

If this happened, the willingness to pay such a premium to go below-ground would arguably prove that there is no appetite for surface light rail in the future of the city.

Mr. Ford's arguments for this subway centre on fair treatment for the suburbs, a faith that ridership will materialize as the city grows, concerns about the LRT's effect on drivers and the nothing-but-underground philosophy that featured so prominently in last year's debate over Scarborough transit.

What is glossed over is that the route is largely low rise and, along extended stretches, lightly populated.

Keele and Finch – a suburban crossroads anchored by modest apartment buildings, a small bank branch and a payday-advance business – is an unlikely enough intersection for the subway stop that will come as the Spadina subway extends northward. Turning it into a transit hub and start of a new line seems even more far-fetched.

Current bus ridership on Finch West is vastly less than would justify a subway. And even with a light rail, the provincial transit agency Metrolinx projects peak one-direction ridership at 2,800 an hour, less than one-tenth the capacity of a subway. By comparison, the Sheppard subway peaks at just under 3,900 an hour, according to the TTC, far below capacity but still nearly 40-per-cent higher than the Finch projection.

Also, along most of this stretch of Finch west, dedicated lanes for light rail would not reduce the amount of space for other vehicles.

But the pro-subway contingent is beating the drum loudly. A local business improvement area has come out strongly against the LRT, citing a study that shows sharply increased car travel time with light rail. There have also been concerns about turning trucks. And opponents have secured the support of Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, who is running for re-election in Ward 7.

"I will lie on the road if I have to," he said recently. "I'm going to stop that LRT."

Like Mr. Ford, he doesn't have much time for negative questions about ridership or density. He says the neighbourhood is growing fast and claims the TTC is way off on the number of people who use the Finch bus. According to Mr. Mammoliti, TTC drivers have told him that up to 80 per cent of the riders at some intersections get on without paying, undermining the argument for a subway.

"They're not counting the people," he said. "We would meet the criteria if they just count the people."

The 80-per-cent figure was dismissed out of hand by Bob Kinnear, head of Amalgamated Transit Union local 113. He noted that at least half of riders have a pass and another group uses transfers. That leaves a relatively small group of people who might potentially be fare-jumping.

Still, with Mr. Ford hovering within striking distance of Mr. Tory, there remains the chance that yet another of Toronto's light-rail plans will be torn up.

The possibility is infuriating to LRT advocates who note that light rail plays a key role in the transit systems of numerous big cities, serving as a much cheaper option for areas with ridership that doesn't warrant underground heavy rail. But the brothers Ford have effectively cast surface rail as an inferior concept that inconveniences drivers.

"You've got all the people living in the suburbs who don't use the TTC, who regard transit as something that other people use, and they just want it out of the way," said writer and transit advocate Steve Munro.

"The other part of subway mythology is the 'build it and they will come' argument that says, oh, if you build a subway the loading will go through the roof."

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