Ottawa's ally is 'damaged goods'

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and an honour guard await United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon at the presidential palace in Kabul on November 2, 2009.

Hamid Karzai, once feted as a hero in Ottawa, is now viewed as a liability and the continuation of his presidency after the fraud-tainted Afghan election promises to polarize the debate over Canada's mission.

The Conservative government reacted to the cancellation of a scheduled runoff vote by trying to keep the issue low-key. Prime Minister Stephen Harper joined other Western allies in congratulating Mr. Karzai on re-election, while mixing in a lecture about the need to combat corruption.

The problem for Mr. Harper's government is clear, however: In a counterinsurgency strategy that rests on building the credibility of a domestic government, Mr. Karzai is the only option for an ally, but a flawed one.

Officials in Ottawa said they will now stress support for Afghan institutions over support for one man. Trade Minister Stockwell Day, chairman of the cabinet Afghanistan committee, fielded an inquiry in Question Period without once naming Mr. Karzai, calling the elections "a project of Afghanistan as a people."

"Mr. Karzai is, for lack of a better term, damaged goods," Carleton University foreign-policy professor Fen Hampson said. The purpose of an election was to lend credibility to the government, but its cancellation after first-round fraud will bolster critics' doubts about the justification for Canada's mission: "We may see a polarization of that debate."

Already, NDP Leader Jack Layton is judging the legitimacy of Mr. Karzai's government as fuzzy, at best, and arguing that undermines Canada's mission.

"It throws our goals into question," Mr. Layton said. "Is this the democracy we imagined? I think more and more Canadians will call, like us, for the withdrawal of our troops."

Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae said the commitment to keep troops in Afghanistan until 2011 is settled, but Canada's broader political strategy in Afghanistan is not. The government, he said, cannot just shrug off the fraud that invalidated huge blocks of Mr. Karzai's vote, but must press for people to be held accountable. "We can't just shake our heads and say, 'That's too bad,' " he said.

For now, the Canadian government awaits U.S. President Barack Obama's decision on whether to send up to 40,000 more troops and launch a broader counterinsurgency strategy - as recommended by his Afghanistan commander, General Stanley McChrystal - before shaping its post-2011 Afghanistan contributions.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay reiterated yesterday that Canada's combat mission will end in 2011, but it's not clear yet if that means all troops, or only the withdrawal of Canada's main battle group in Kandahar. Canadian special forces operate beyond Kandahar, and sizable numbers of troops might remain to protect civilian projects or train Afghan soldiers, becoming embroiled in fighting.

Mr. Rae said the concerns about the election shows a revamped political strategy is needed, and that Canada and allies must take bolder steps against corruption, and to build Afghanistan's judiciary and police.

Public attention has been on the military after 2011, but what matters is whether the Afghan government's credibility is strengthened in the meantime, he said. "Far more of our focus has to be on what happens from now till then."