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After taking a hiatus during the 2012 U.S. election campaign, Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver headed south of the border in March to Chicago and Houston, and in April to Washington where he met the new interior secretary, Sally Jewel, State Department under-secretary Robert Hormats and senior members of Congress. During his visit to the capital, Mr. Oliver excoriated former NASA scientist James Hansen for his “exaggerated rhetoric” about the perils of oil sands expansion. Mr. Oliver expects to return to Washington once the new energy secretary, Ernest Moniz, settles into his job.Peter Power/The Globe and Mail

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What about Joe?

As Prime Minister Stephen Harper prepares a mid-term, cabinet facelift for his majority government, one of the more intriguing storylines is the fate of Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty – who has served in that post since 2006 – has campaigned publicly to remain there until the deficit is eliminated in 2015, though there is no word on how the Prime Minister might respond to Mr. Flaherty's stated desire. The prime minister is clearly looking to bring some new blood into cabinet, and/or elevate solid performers into more prominent posts, and he is expected to demote those ministers who do not plan to run in the next election.

Assuming Mr. Harper sticks to his October 2015 election date, Mr. Oliver will be 75 when voters go to the polls, and he had major heart surgery at the beginning of the year. But he has not slowed down, and he plans to run again.

"I intend to seek the nomination in Eglinton-Lawrence for the Conservative Party of Canada in the next election," he said in an e-mail.

"I am honoured to represent my constituents and want to continue to work on their behalf and behalf of all Canadians. As to my ministerial responsibilities, I serve at the pleasure of the Prime Minister."

Since returning to work from his surgery, he has travelled extensively in the United States – visiting Chicago, Houston, New York and Washington – to promote Canada's energy exports and lobby for Obama administration approval of the highly-controversial Keystone XL pipeline. One of the most travelled ministers in the previous two years, he has been overseas twice since January, visiting Israel and Belgium, France and Britain, where he argued Canada's case on Europe's planned fuel quality directive that Ottawa says would discriminate against oil sands producers.

More than his age, it is role as the Harper government's point man on the oil sands file that has made him controversial.

Mr. Oliver shepherded legislation through Parliament last year that overhauled – opposition MPs say "gutted" – environmental reviews of major resource projects, an effort the government defended as necessary to speed up decisions. He provoked controversy by attacking some opponents of the Northern Gateway pipeline as foreign-funded radicals who work against Canada's national interest – a line of attack that many Conservative supporters viewed long overdue. And he was recently quoted questioning the severity of climate change.

NDP natural resources critic Peter Julian said Mr. Oliver has been "gaffe prone," and a poor salesman for a policy that would be a hard sell for the most eloquent of advocates.

"He sometimes speaks off the cuff and says things that just aren't that intelligent," Mr. Julian said, pointing to the Montreal interview in which he appeared to question whether climate change would have as severe an impact as many scientists forecast. Mr. Oliver insisted he was taken out of context in the La Presse interview, and was merely pointing out that questions being raised about the level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and the climate impact, but that the government remains committed to work internationally to address climate change.

While his bluntness can create controversy, Mr. Oliver has, for the most part, merely delivered the message that the Prime Minister and cabinet have endorsed.

He faithfully delivers the government's lines about constructing a "world class" marine safety system – even as Ottawa closes Coast Guard stations in British Columbia – about Ottawa's commitment to "responsible resource development" – even as Ottawa removed some oil sands projects from federal environmental assessment – and about the Harper government's intention to meet GHG emission targets – even when most critics say that will be virtually impossible given current policies.

If Mr. Harper is looking to put a kinder, gentler face on his cabinet in advance of the 2015 election, he may well decide that Mr. Oliver has served his usefulness and now is time for a change of tack, though no one expects a major change in policy. But the prime minister is also notoriously reluctant to give in to critics: In the eyes of Conservative supporters, his septuagenarian minister has been a good soldier and deserves to be treated well.

Shawn McCarthy covers energy in the Ottawa bureau.

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