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Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter.Tim Fraser/The Globe and Mail

Nova Scotia's ruling NDP has launched a TV attack ad against its main opponent and changed course to find $100,000 to combat animal cruelty, while Premier Darrell Dexter has dropped 20 pounds – signs that an election is not far off.

The buzz is that Mr. Dexter is poised to try to win another mandate, with some observers saying the writ could drop by Easter.

"They're announcing things and they're announcing them again," says Glennie Langille, the Liberal candidate in Pictou West. "They're paving everything that moves. I'm seeing a lot of direct contact from the NDP to constituents and it's really, really picked up over the last couple of weeks. So for me, if they're not going, they're thinking about going."

Although the polls show the Dexter government running behind the official opposition Liberals and its leader Stephen McNeil, history is on the NDP's side as it's been decades since a government did not win a second term.

It will be four years in June since the NDP was elected with a majority. It has until June 14, 2014 before its mandate runs out – but the expectation has always been an election would come within four years.

"We're prepared for an election campaign whenever he wants to call it," says Liberal leader McNeil. He is keeping his election predictions to himself, however, saying that he gave up a long time ago trying to predict the direction of the Dexter government.

The Liberals held their annual meeting over the weekend in Halifax, revealing a $632,000 war chest. In addition, the party has nominated over half of its candidates and there is activity in every riding. They now have 13 of 52 seats in the legislature compared to 31 for the NDP, seven for the Progressive Conservatives and one Independent.

A senior official in the Premier's office, who spoke on background, is sending mixed messages about election timing. He notes the call is up to Mr. Dexter but that the Premier has a balanced budget to deliver to fulfill his promise of sorting out the books. The province has said it's on track to balance it this year.

The recent TV attack ad also has tongues wagging. The ad takes aim at Mr. McNeil's concerns over the Muskrat Falls hydro-electricity project, which will bring power from Newfoundland and Labrador to Nova Scotia.

The project, supported by the Dexter government, is controversial. The opposition parties have vigorously questioned the government over the expense and necessity of this long-term deal.

The ad says that although Nova Scotians may not know much about Mr. McNeil they do know that he is "opposed to clean Atlantic Canadian power from Muskrat Falls." It suggests that he is in bed with Hydro-Quebec, and warns about how poorly Hydro-Quebec treated Newfoundland – a reference to Newfoundland's view that it got ripped off in its deal with Quebec over Churchill Falls.

"So if you want Quebec-Hydro controlling our power, Stephen McNeil is your guy," says the female narrator, an ominous tone in her voice.

Mr. McNeil says the ad has backfired on the Dexter NDP because it's seen as an attack on another province.

But the Dexter official says the ad is simply in response to the "tens of thousands in advertising" the Liberals have spent to attack them. The NDP believe there hasn't been enough scrutiny of Mr. McNeil.

Weight loss, meanwhile, is usually a clue that a politician is preparing to fight a campaign. But the Dexter official cautions about reading anything into this – the Premier is trim not because of a new pre-election regimen but because of a "set of lifestyle choices."

What about the sudden discovery of $100,000 for the SPCA and its animal cruelty investigation program? The Dexter official says this is simply a government listening and responding to its constituents.

Still, there was much outrage over the fact that the program was about to be disbanded because of lack of funding from the province. That was until the Premier suddenly found another $100,000. It's not a huge amount in the scheme of things but it's these sorts of issues that constituents understand and can plague a government – better to get them out of the way before an election call.

Jane Taber is The Globe's Atlantic bureau chief.

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