The most Harper can do is push allies to punish Russia

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The big blue-and-yellow flag unfurled when Stephen Harper hosted the Ukrainian ambassador on Monday was a signal that there are no caveats in Canada's public criticism of Vladimir Putin.

For Mr. Harper's government, domestic politics, principles and even a personality clash between leaders all align to make Canada a vocal critic of Russia's actions in Crimea. But in the cold world of international power politics, Mr. Harper's real role is to be a gadfly, to nudge allies with a lot more to lose into measures to pressure Russia.

Mr. Harper heads to Ukraine Saturday to make a show of support by meeting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. But his meetings with European counterparts next week, including a visit to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, offer him an opportunity to influence Russia's major trading partners.

Western nations fired a shot across Russia's bow on Monday, but Mr. Putin will not be shaking. The European Union, the United States and Canada all imposed their first sanctions on Russians – Ottawa placed travel bans on seven Russian officials close to Mr. Putin. They're starter sanctions, a warning at best, that won't perturb Moscow's power circles.

"This is it? This is supposed to make Putin turn around?" said Gordon Smith, a distinguished fellow with the Centre for International Governance Innovation and former deputy minister of foreign affairs. "I don't think so."

In Canada's case, there's no lack of distaste. Ottawa was offended by Russia's sleeper invasion of Crimea, and some inside Mr. Harper's government see it as piece of Mr. Putin's dangerous solo leadership. To top it off, Mr. Harper and Mr. Putin plainly don't like each other.

And then there's every domestic political motivation to be vocal. There are 1.2 million Ukrainian Canadians, with active organizations and political pull, so all three major federal parties have been keen to be seen defending Kiev against Moscow. Canada's relatively small trade with Russia – merchandise exports amount to about $1.5-billion per year – make it easier for Ottawa to complain, with few interests at stake.

But that also means Ottawa can afford to criticize. Leaders of the Ukrainian-Canadian community, which includes some who want NATO to jump in to force Russia back, have generally given the Canadian government credit for pressing allies to oppose Russia's actions. "Canada has been working the corridors," said Taras Zalusky, executive director of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress.

Western governments certainly don't want a war over Russia's de facto take over of Crimea. NATO nations have little appetite for confrontation. But the worry is that it won't stop in Crimea. Mr. Smith noted that Russia seems to be building a pretext for entering Ukraine, with its large Russian minorities, using outbreaks of violence as a cause to occupy. That would likely make NATO countries start talking about entering Ukraine, but Mr. Smith notes they have to first consider how far they will go. "Are we prepared to go to war – let's not mince words – in Eastern Ukraine?"

There are sanctions, but no one in Ottawa is under any illusion that those imposed Monday will push Russia back. They are supposed to be a first step, with more biting measures to follow – if there's a will. Steps like freezing Russian assets could lead Moscow to retaliate against Western companies.

And while some countries in Europe, like Poland and Sweden, are warning about the dangers of Russia re-arranging the balance of security in Europe, others, like Germany and France, have their own interests at stake. France is selling warships to Russia. Germany, like many European countries, depends on Russia for natural gas. Disrupting the huge, two-way trade between Russia and the EU, which totalled $412-billion in 2012, could wreak havoc in the European economy.

When Mr. Harper visits Ms. Merkel next week, he's likely to hear that Europeans have a lot more at stake when considering broad trade sanctions against Russia. Punishing Russia would punish them, too. The biggest impact Mr. Harper can have is in trying to nudge Europeans into preparing sanctions with a little more sting.

Mr. Smith argues that the next step to tighten pressure on Russia is to go after the rich oligarchs close to Mr. Putin, either freezing their assets or using special regulation and bureaucracy to put their companies' transactions under punishing scrutiny that hampers their business. It's an approach that Mr. Zalusky, of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, also favours: "Tie them up in knots," he said.

For the most part, those knots would be tied in European capitals, however, and for all Mr. Harper's tough words, his biggest hope for impact will come in convincing allies to risk tougher action.

Campbell Clark is The Globe's chief political writer.