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Lundin Mining photos showing the Zinkgruvan zinc, lead, silver mine in Sweden as well as our Norrbotten gold, copper exploration program in Sweden.

Recent history suggests investors may want to do some bargain hunting in the copper sector after the drubbing of the last few days.

That's the conclusion of Laurentian Bank Securities analyst Chris Chang, whose examination of the charts shows that copper prices do not stay below $3 (U.S.) a pound for very long.

Copper prices edged a little higher today, with three-month metal on the London Metal Exchange ending up 0.5 per cent at $6,505 (U.S.) a tonne, or $2.95 per pound. That barely puts a dent into the 11 per cent plunge it suffered so far this year, including a 2.6 per cent decline on Tuesday.

The main blame has been placed on signs of slowing growth in China, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of copper demand. A surprisingly weak reading over the weekend on the country's export sector spooked investors that were already concerned about ballooning credit levels in the country. On Friday, a Chinese solar-equipment maker failed to meet interest payments on a bond. A lot of copper in China is tied up in financing deals, where importers sell metal on domestic markets to raise credit for investments elsewhere, and there are fears these deals could unravel.

But the charts provide encouragement that the copper market - and the equities that largely follow its direction - aren't headed for disaster. Mr. Chang looked at the last three occurrences when copper prices closed on the LME below $3 a pound. Back in November 2009, copper prices closed at $2.95 but were back up to $3.11 within the next 90 days. Copper equities remained flat during that period. (See this chart)

Copper prices again closed at $2.95 on Feb. 10, 2010, and recovered to $3.21 by May 10 of that year. During this time, copper equities appreciated 5 per cent over the next 90 days. (See this chart).

The most recent instance when copper closed below $3 a pound was on July 19, 2010. Again, copper closed at $2.95. In the next 90 days, they rallied and closed at $3.74, and copper equities rose about 42 per cent during the period. (See this chart).

That certainly doesn't preclude copper from holding below $3 a pound this time around. But Mr. Chang cites other reasons for optimism that the dip will be short lived. Recent comments by Chinese Premier Li Kequiang suggests the government remains committed to maintaining its growth targets, which it has set at 7.5 per cent, and it has all sorts of monetary and fiscal policy tools at its disposal.

And while additional Chinese bond defaults are a concern, the 7.5 per cent growth target should continue to foster strong demand out of China and absorb additional excess inventory that may come to the market, he says.

Nevertheless, risks have certainly been heightened in the copper arena. As such, he recommends investors remain exposed to copper stocks that are relatively more defensive in nature. He likes Lundin Mining, which has a well insulated balance sheet, near-term cash flow growth and a high-quality expandable asset base. He has a $5.60 (Canadian) price target and "buy" rating on the stock.

He also likes Capstone Mining for its strong balance sheet, "compelling" valuation, and a production profile that's growing. He has a $3.70 (Canadian) price target on the stock.

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